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WTO Reform: Little substantive discussion of real value to the process. Delegations present positions which are well known and established before this MC. Some positions date back to MC13. Main impression: Negotiations have not really started on the options presented by the facilitator (Norway).
E-commerce is the only real issue now on the table for negotiations. This is considered the most important for the United States at this Ministerial Conference.
Several delegates claim that an end to the moratorium on e-commerce, making e-commerce permanently free from tariffs, and maintaining freedom of data collection, is the only issue of real importance for the United States at this Ministerial Conference.
If my sources are correct, the European Union and Norway do not only support the United States position, the European members are co-sponsors of the US proposition. If this is true, it is no less than mind-blowing in its lack of political logic. Over several years, increasing dramatically after the re-election of Donald Trump to the White House, there is a dawning comprehension in Europe of the fact that US technology giants, predominantly based in Silicon Valley, control fundamentally important part of their own countries vital infrastructure. In some countries this is now at the top of the domestic political agenda. Thus, the European position here in Yaoundé is completely incomprehensible.
Unless: With the important exception of the US, India and China, the trade policy community lives in its entirely own universe. With the exception of agriculture, the transatlantic alliance has always been strong also in global trade policy-making. Thus, trade ministers and their mandarins rarely take a look outside their cocoon. The current discussion turning to negotiations this week, may prove to be the latest examples of this - I would claim the most striking example, confirming the need to bring the trade policy community somewhat closer to political realities.
Practically all other than OECD countries are strongly opposed to the US position on e-commerce. Most developing countries express concern with regard to loss of revenue, others point to the need for policy space. Some countries underscore that both are important reasons not to support the US (EU/Norway) position.
Here I should highlight the following, based on sources among civil society members of various negotiating delegations: Norway’s position on e-commerce is seriously tarnishing Norway’s legitimacy as facilitator on WTO Reform. This again will have an obvious negative spill-over to the prospects of having a meaningful outcome on reform - the most important issue on the agenda at the most pivotal MC since the organization was established more than 30 years ago.
While several prominent Member States from the Global South are prepared to negotiate a compromise leading to extension of the Moratorium in various forms, one delegations stands firmly against a continued Moratorium. That country is India.
My sources in the negotiations describe the Indian delegation as the obvious leader of the Global South.
For example: “What do we really mean by e-commerce?” India is asking. Nobody in the room is able to provide a clear answer. Have another taste of this one (!)
One of my sources tells me that he had informally asked his own head of delegation to answer this question. The answer he received from his minister went as follows: «This is a very complicated matter». If it is too complicated to explain, how on earth can you take such a clear and strong position on such a question…??
“You can say that India is the center of the negotiating universe at this stage», says one negotiator whose origin shall remain confidential. By the way: China is very low key overall - at this stage. As such, the current state of affairs here in Yaoundé follows well knows practices: India is the visible champion of developing countries and their interests, OECD countries either glue themselves to the US or play low key, while China simply takes note of the noise - while catering to its business. In case you have been sleeping: How many customers do the Big Tech oligarchs have in the People's Republic…??
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