The following are principal risks, possible negative consequences and the probability of threats or dangers becoming a problem.
|What are the dangers to CUTS being unsuccessful in achieving the outcomes?||What are the negative consequences or losses if the problem materialises?||What is the probability of the threats or dangers becoming a problem that undermines CUTS achieving the outcomes?|
|1||The input from partners on (a) advocacy work on WTO issues and (b) training of other NGOs will be of insufficient quality||Major: building the capacity of NGOs to work on these issues is the cornerstone of these project.||Low: these NGOs already have considerable knowledge on WTO issues due to previous involvement with CUTS. Moreover, they have received four days of training on relevant issues. The Project Management Team will provide them with regular follow-up and they will be linked to research institutions at the state level. All these are to enhance their capacity on WTO issues.|
|2||CUTS will not have at least 33 percent female staff in the GRANITE programme||Major: it is crucial that women can and should participate equally in the programme||Low: the Project Management Team will consist of CUTS staff in the project and those from partner organisations. At least 40 percent women have been involved in the Project Management Team.|
|3||CUTS will not be able to achieve its objectives since many Indian NGOs do not want to be associated with CUTS as they regard it’s views on trade as too moderate||Moderate to Minor: there are still a good number of NGOs who do want to work with CUTS.||Medium to Low: with the available NGOs and with its networking strengths CUTS should still be able to achieve the outcomes.|
|4||The government will not follow-up on the recommendations of CUTS and its partners as it also takes into account the interests of other – powerful – sections of society, such as the business sector, whose interests might contradict those of the poor.||Moderate to Major: this would mean India would not advocate for a pro-poor WTO declaration in December 2005, in Hong Kong||Medium to Low: the government has come to power recently on the basis of a commitment to adopt and implement pro-poor policies. Therefore, the government now has to deliver if it wants to maintain its constituency. CUTS will continuously remind the government of this, also utilising the fact that in 2006 state elections are planned in at least three important Indian states. The project will be implemented in two out of these three states.|
|5||CUTS might not have the study document on the grassroots impact of the WTO rules and regulations in time to influence the WTO Ministerial conference in Hong Kong in December 2005.||Medium to Major: this would mean a real missed opportunity to influence trade policy in favour of the poor.||Medium to Low: CUTS will adjust its research schedule and it has reduced the research area to two states so that the study document will be ready in time for advocacy purposes at the WTO Ministerial conference in Hong Kong.|
|6||CUTS will not succeed to have the STPCs established in at least six out of eight states in which CUTS is working.||Major: when there is no STPC there are very few opportunities for the civil society to influence trade policy in favour of the poor.||Medium: CUTS and its partners will conduct formal and informal advocacy for the establishment of STPCs and such advocacy will start at the beginning of the project. Some key persons (influential in generating political will for such an institutional arrangement) will be involved in the project as members of State Reference Groups and will be used as conduits for advocacy. Furthermore, CUTS and partners will conduct advocacy for the formation STPC by writing in media (English as well as local language).|